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Recession or Not? What the Experts Are Saying and How to Prepare

Alexander Ogbede

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Whispers of a recession have been swirling around the financial news cycle lately. Inflation is soaring, interest rates are rising, and the stock market is experiencing some wild swings. So, should you be bracing for an economic downturn? Let’s dive into what the experts are saying and how you can prepare for any potential storm.

The Expert Take:

Economists are divided on the likelihood of a recession. Some believe a slowdown is inevitable, while others argue the economy is resilient enough to weather current challenges. Here’s a breakdown of some key perspectives:

  • The Worried: Many economists point to historical patterns, tight labor markets, and aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes as potential triggers for a recession.
  • The Cautiously Optimistic: Others believe the strong job market and consumer spending habits can buoy the economy. They argue that proactive measures by the Federal Reserve can prevent a severe downturn.

The Bottom Line:

The truth is, nobody can predict a recession with certainty. It’s best to be prepared for a range of possibilities.

How to Prepare for Uncertain Times:

Here are some actionable steps to strengthen your financial footing, regardless of what the future holds:

1. Build Your Emergency Fund: Aim for 3-6 months of living expenses saved in a safe, liquid account. This buffer will help you cover essential costs if faced with job loss or income reduction.

2. Review Your Budget: Identify areas where you can cut back on discretionary spending. This frees up extra cash to bolster your savings or pay down debt.

3. Prioritize Debt Repayment: Focus on paying off high-interest debt, such as credit cards. This reduces your monthly obligations and improves your overall financial health.

4. Diversify Your Investments: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your investments across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate. This helps mitigate risk and provides stability during market downturns.

5. Sharpen Your Career Skills: Invest in continuous learning and upskilling to stay competitive in the job market. This increases your job security and earning potential.

6. Stay Informed, But Don’t Panic:
Stay updated on economic news, but avoid getting overwhelmed by daily market fluctuations. Focus on credible sources and make well-informed decisions based on your long-term financial goals.

Remember: Even if a recession materializes, it’s not the end of the world. By taking proactive steps today, you can fortify your finances and emerge stronger on the other side.

Alexander Ogbede is a finance and cryptocurrency journalist known for insightful analyses and in-depth reporting. Alex is also the CEO of JujuLab, a leading Software and marketing agency, JujuLab combine their expertise in finance with innovative marketing strategies to drive client success across various industries.

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S&P 500 Hits Longest Stretch Without Major Sell-Off Since Financial Crisis

Alexander Ogbede

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The S&P 500 has experienced 377 consecutive days without a 2.05% sell-off, marking the longest period of such stability since the financial crisis, according to FactSet data compiled by CNBC.

Market Dynamics and Tech Stock Surge

This period of relative calm coincides with a significant influx of investment into megacap tech stocks, such as Nvidia, driven by expectations that advancements in artificial intelligence will substantially boost profits. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has risen more than 14%, buoyed by anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts and new data indicating that inflation is moving closer to the central bank’s 2% target.

Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, noted, “At a high level, the clouds of macro uncertainty have parted over the last 12 months as receding inflation provided much-needed clarity into the future path of monetary policy. The changing narrative from rate hikes to rate cuts and recessions to economic resilience helped drag the VIX down to multiyear lows, ultimately shifting the backdrop for stocks to a low-volatility regime.”

Volatility Index at Historic Lows

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely regarded as Wall Street’s fear gauge, hit its lowest level since November 2020 last month and traded around 13 on Friday, near historically low levels. Joseph Cusick, senior vice president and portfolio specialist at Calamos Investments, commented, “The low VIX reflects the options market’s complacency, with VIX at a three-year low. This makes sense since institutions have been actively hedging; there is no urgency to sell underlying assets with these insurance products in place.”

Future Outlook

The duration of this low-volatility period remains uncertain. In 2017, the S&P 500 experienced just eight daily moves of more than 1%, while the VIX dropped to historic lows below 9. However, volatility returned to the market the following year, with the VIX surging above 50 before settling down.

As the market continues to navigate evolving economic conditions, investors will be closely monitoring indicators such as inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy to gauge future volatility and market performance.

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German Economy Minister Clarifies EU Tariffs on Chinese Goods During Beijing Visit

Alexander Ogbede

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Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck clarified that proposed European Union tariffs on Chinese goods are not intended as a punishment during a visit to Beijing on Saturday. This visit marks the first by a senior European official since the EU suggested imposing substantial duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) in response to what it perceives as excessive subsidies.

EU Tariffs: A Measure for Fair Competition

Habeck emphasized in a climate and transformation dialogue session that the proposed tariffs are not punitive. “It is important to understand that these are not punitive tariffs,” he said, distinguishing the EU’s approach from that of other countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Turkey. “Europe does things differently.”

Habeck explained that the European Commission had conducted a thorough nine-month investigation to determine whether Chinese companies had unfairly benefited from subsidies. The proposed countervailing duties are intended to level the playing field, compensating for the advantages granted to Chinese firms by their government. “Common, equal standards for market access should be achieved,” he asserted.

Dialogue with Chinese Officials

In discussions with Zheng Shanjie, chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, Habeck reiterated that the EU’s proposed tariffs aim to ensure fair competition. Zheng responded firmly, stating, “We will do everything to protect Chinese companies.”

The EU’s provisional duties are set to take effect by July 4, with the investigation continuing until November 2. Final duties, potentially lasting five years, could be imposed based on the investigation’s findings. Habeck encouraged Chinese officials to engage in dialogue regarding the EU report’s conclusions, stating, “It’s important now to take the opportunity that the report provides seriously and to talk or negotiate.”

Focus on Climate Cooperation

While trade tensions were a key topic, the primary goal of Habeck’s visit was to enhance cooperation on climate change and the green transition. This meeting was the first plenary session of the climate and transformation dialogue since Germany and China signed a memorandum of understanding in June of the previous year.

Both nations acknowledged their significant responsibility to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, a threshold deemed critical by scientists.

Renewable Energy and Emissions Concerns

Habeck commended China’s significant expansion of renewable energy, noting that China installed nearly 350 gigawatts of new renewable capacity in 2023, over half of the global total. The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated that China might surpass its 2030 renewable energy targets this year. However, Habeck stressed the importance of considering overall CO2 emissions alongside the expansion of renewables.

“China has a coal-based energy mix,” Zheng acknowledged, noting that coal still accounted for nearly 60% of China’s electricity supply in 2023. China, along with India and Indonesia, is responsible for nearly 75% of global coal consumption, as these countries prioritize energy security and affordability over carbon emissions.

Zheng explained that China is building coal-fired power plants as a security measure. Habeck, however, suggested, “I still believe that the enormous expansion of coal power can be done differently if one considers the implication of renewables in the system.”

Habeck’s visit underscores the delicate balance between fostering international cooperation on climate goals and addressing trade disputes to ensure fair market practices.

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Banking Regulators Identify Weaknesses in Major U.S. Lenders’ Resolution Plans

Alexander Ogbede

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Banking regulators have disclosed deficiencies in the resolution plans, or “living wills,” of four of the eight largest American lenders. The Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced on Friday that the 2023 resolution plans submitted by Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America were found inadequate.

Concerns Over Derivatives Portfolios

The primary issue identified by regulators was the banks’ strategies for unwinding their extensive derivatives portfolios. Derivatives are complex financial instruments tied to the value of assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, or interest rates. The regulators’ assessment revealed significant shortcomings in the banks’ ability to effectively manage these portfolios in a crisis.

For instance, Citigroup was tested on its ability to unwind its contracts using different scenarios than those initially proposed by the bank. The results indicated material limitations in Citigroup’s capabilities, a problem that also affected the other banks evaluated.

Regulatory Findings and Responses

The living wills exercise, mandated post-2008 financial crisis, requires major U.S. banks to submit plans every two years demonstrating their ability to orderly unwind operations without triggering widespread economic disruption. Regulators identified a “shortcoming” in the resolution plans of JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America. However, Citigroup’s plan was classified as having a more serious “deficiency” by the FDIC, indicating it would not ensure an orderly resolution under U.S. bankruptcy law. The Federal Reserve, while noting shortcomings, did not fully concur with the FDIC’s severe assessment of Citigroup.

In response, Citigroup expressed commitment to addressing the issues highlighted by regulators. “We are fully committed to addressing the issues identified by our regulators,” the bank stated. “While we’ve made substantial progress on our transformation, we’ve acknowledged that we have had to accelerate our work in certain areas. More broadly, we continue to have confidence that Citi could be resolved without an adverse systemic impact or the need for taxpayer funds.”

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America declined to comment on the findings.

Looking Ahead

The identified weaknesses must be addressed by the next round of living will submissions, due in 2025. This regulatory exercise remains a crucial measure to ensure that major financial institutions can be dismantled in a manner that prevents systemic risks and protects the broader economy.

Regulators’ scrutiny and the banks’ subsequent improvements will be closely watched, as they play a critical role in maintaining financial stability and preventing future crises similar to the one experienced in 2008.

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